IGNs odd stats article

[PanocideX]

http://xbox360.ign.com/articles/829/829965p1.html

Article about how Guitar Hero III is going to outsell Rock Band. First of all, neither are on the market yet, so how can they know this? And second, how can you have statistics and not provide them? When you don't let the statistics speak for themselves, well, you can make up whatever you want...

Also, they state that Guitar Hero III is selling for $89.99 on Xbox 360. I have seen it everywhere for $99.99. If they can't even get the price right, how are we supposed to trust their data?

[Requiem]

Uh, the whole end of the article IS statistics. It makes sense. Guitar Hero is a well established property and people are going to stick with it. We all knew that.

[RiskyChris]

I'd bet my life on GHIII outselling Rock Band this Christmas.

[PanocideX]

Yes, but just because people look at Guitar Hero III pages more than Rock Band pages doesn't mean its gonna sell more. As I recall there was a point where IGN had Guitar Hero articles strewn about their site. When people see those, they are gonna read them. I read a Madden article the other day just because it was there. Doesn't mean im gonna buy it.

All that I am saying is, they are presenting inferences as facts. And thats wrong.

Mostly just posted this topic because its a new Rock Band related article.

[Eman311]

their info makes sense to me.

and, gh3 will outsell rock band easily.

[Xzyliac]

What crap to base future sales on one sites internet traffic. Especially when the coverage for GHIII and RB aren't really equal. GHIII got much better media.

[sushi111]

This isnt news.

[Electric_Zen]

Yes, but just because people look at Guitar Hero III pages more than Rock Band pages doesn't mean its gonna sell more.

GH3 will sell more for the reasons cited in the article: pricing, brand recognition, and being first to market.

Plus, Rock Band is clearly supply constrained initially. Plus, GH3 is being sold on more platforms. Plus, GH3 will be sold in Europe.

It will probably take 6-12 months before the general public realizes that Rock Band is now the better franchise.

[Xzyliac]

It will probably take 6-12 months before the general public realizes that Rock Band is now the better franchise.

I wouldn't say that. I think that the two will differ greatly and whatever RB does differently or lacks may be a stumbling block for some and will ***** and moan about it. The adaptivity isn't there.

[Jimmik]

Moral of this story: GH3 sucks!

Hah, just kidding. Yea, no surprise there. But I am honestly not worried. Why would you NOT want to play Rock Band given the choice? It just doesn't make sense. The world will know soon enough :)

[foolosophy]

I think if anyone thought RB would outsell GH3 by the end of this year they were sorely mistaken. There's no doubt in my mind GH3 will "win" the sales fight this year.

[Xzyliac]

I still believe RB should be marketed as the 'and' not the 'or' like the Wii was. As it picks up momentum and individual instruments are available then they can get more head-to-head.

[dethklok]

Rock Band will live, and eventually kill, Guitar Hero.

Guitar Hero will eventually die because they will run out of good songs to put in the game.

Rock Band in the other hand, has many songs that you can put, and when the double pedal comes, if it ever comes, it will be more open to the metalheads ;) Like yours truly.

[JackBNimble]

Do you think HMX/MTV are worried in the least?HMX is in a better position now then they where when they first made GH1,2,80's.Once RB is finally out it's going to speak for it self.
I believe with in 6-12 months the GH series with be running behind RB.Let them get the game out and establish themselves first,I bet they will have a cult like following soon.
Don't forget Neversoft is going to have to prove that they can do what HMX has already done.And RB is already in the next stagges in the evolutionary process in the music genre,GH3 is still doing the same OLD thing...............BTW most of us want GH3 to,don't we?

[Supergeek]

I would bet money that GH3 will outsell Rock Band, at least for a while, and I do not even plan to buy Guitar Hero 3.

Liking something doesn't mean you have to defend it unrealistically. GH3 has a lot more going for it, marketing-wise, than Rock Band, as previously stated.

[HollywoodBound]

I'd bet my life on GHIII outselling Rock Band this Christmas.

The biggest reason though is not that people don't want it. The real reason is beause HMX won't be able to have enought supply to meet demand - similar to what the Wii is facing.

[visualdeity]

Rock Band will live, and eventually kill, Guitar Hero.

Guitar Hero will eventually die because they will run out of good songs to put in the game.

Rock Band in the other hand, has many songs that you can put, and when the double pedal comes, if it ever comes, it will be more open to the metalheads ;) Like yours truly.

Your logic absolutely befuddles me, sir. Rock Band and Guitar Hero both draw from the same genre of music... so how exactly is one going to run out of songs before the other?

...if anything, Rock Band is going to run out of songs first, because it's focusing on classic rock so far, whereas Guitar Hero includes a wider variety of rock (metal, punk).

[RiskyChris]

The biggest reason though is not that people don't want it. The real reason is beause HMX won't be able to have enought supply to meet demand - similar to what the Wii is facing.

No, the biggest reason in brand strength.

[toefer]

Your logic absolutely befuddles me, sir. Rock Band and Guitar Hero both draw from the same genre of music... so how exactly is one going to run out of songs before the other?

...if anything, Rock Band is going to run out of songs first, because it's focusing on classic rock so far, whereas Guitar Hero includes a wider variety of rock (metal, punk).

Not to mention Rock Band needs to pick out songs that work for multiple instruments, whereas, with GH 3, Neversoft has shown they'll take a song, and just act like its a guitar song (see Sabotage).

I don't think the whole supply thing is what's going to hold Rock Band back. If anything, its the price, and I know that its only some $80 more than the GH bundle, but keep in mind that most people already have guitars, they're already familiar with the GH series, so picking up a copy of just the GH 3 game is an easy buy for them. With RB, you kind of have to start over, because it's clearly not marketed as a game to play with your GH controller.

[icantwaitforrockband]

http://xbox360.ign.com/articles/829/829965p1.html

Also, they state that Guitar Hero III is selling for $89.99 on Xbox 360. I have seen it everywhere for $99.99. If they can't even get the price right, how are we supposed to trust their data?

The article CLEARLY states 99.99 on xbox 360...don't know what you're talkin' about. And besides....who cares?

[holyground]

The article CLEARLY states 99.99 on xbox 360...don't know what you're talkin' about. And besides....who cares?

He misread the article... the Wii version is indeed 89.99 (http://www.gamestop.com/product.asp?product_id=230184)

[sporkBrigade]

Yes, but just because people look at Guitar Hero III pages more than Rock Band pages doesn't mean its gonna sell more. As I recall there was a point where IGN had Guitar Hero articles strewn about their site. When people see those, they are gonna read them. I read a Madden article the other day just because it was there. Doesn't mean im gonna buy it.

All that I am saying is, they are presenting inferences as facts. And thats wrong.

Mostly just posted this topic because its a new Rock Band related article.

Heh, I think you're reacting to this article without reading it in context. They never say "FACT: GH3 will pwn the RockBand!!!1" All I see is them making a prediction based on web traffic, which is perfectly valid. Sure, everyone clicks on random articles to read them now and then. But the games that people are specifically interested in always lead in web traffic. If you pull up sales records for last year, then pull up web traffic for those same games in order, if the majority of the two lists didn't match I'd be shocked.

Fact is, they didn't state anything as fact, other then the web traffic stats. They're just saying, the safe bet is on GH3. Personally, I have no doubt in my mind. GH3 will outsell Rock Band. They have the brand, and they have the fanbase. It's just fact, don't sweat it. It doesn't mean Rock Band isn't the better game, and it has nothing to do with the future of the franchise.

Here's your test. Next random person you're talking to, ask them if they've ever heard of Guitar Hero. I've done this, and the answer is almost always yes. Then ask them if they've heard of Rock Band. The answer is always no. I've never found anyone in this world who knew about Rock Band before I told them about it. That's just how it goes.

[SmokaCola]

Hopefully GH3 does outsell rock band and hardly anyone buys it at first. That just gives me a perfect chance to get the game on the day of release :D And then when all those fans realized they just made a big mistake the sells for RB will come rolling in. BIG TIME.

[icantwaitforrockband]

He misread the article... the Wii version is indeed 89.99 (http://www.gamestop.com/product.asp?product_id=230184)

yeah...that's what I was pointing out.

[AdamBomb629]

I was at a TOUR STOP today and the general thoughts by passerbys/viewers were "I don't want to spend $170 on a game." (yes, I can know you can buy lesser versions, but you know)

[The_Vampire_Lestat]

It is very unlikely Rock Band will ever outsell guitar hero 3.

Mainly if you buy Rock Band and providing the Strat works with Guitar Hero 3... you'd only have to spend $65 for the game.


If you buy just Guitar Hero 3..... you'd have to spend another $140 for the game, drums and mic.

[jlc510]

GH3 has the better set list (so far) and is cheaper, but RB has the better game and value for what you're getting. I wouldn't worry too much about the GH brand name being too much of a factor. I think MTV will hype up RB enough to make it a house hold name in no time. And sure GH3 might outsell RB for a while, but the real battle is the RB franchise vs GH franchise for longevity and I think the deciding factor to that is the DLC. Espeacialy if one franchise decides to make the DLC compatable with future games, that in itself will build greater value for which ever game that does it and stronger brand loaylty.

[Magnet]

I think everyone realizes Guitar Hero III's sales will crush Rock Band's sales in the short term. Rock Band's strength is really in its longevity though. The game is designed for a one-time investment of peripherals with many songs to choose from and interact with via DLC. Everyone will snatch up Guitar Hero III right away, there may be trickles of DLC that die down when Guitar Hero IV comes around, and the demand will shift immediately to the next game. Sales of Guitar Hero III are likely to be very, very strong for the first two-three months and will probably drop off exponentially afterward. The brand is so strong that everyone who has an eye on it will probably have it by this Christmas. I predict that, possibly as soon as March/April, when more bundle forms and individual instruments are available and Rock Band has proven itself via word of mouth, it will be outselling Guitar Hero III from week-to-week. It's important to emphasize that this prediction hinges on the majority of people who plan on getting GH3 having it by 2008, which I don't think is an unrealistic assumption.

As more people learn about Rock Band and its awesomosity, they will end up buying it. While I think Guitar Hero III has the big "get this game as soon as it's released" factor going for it now, Rock Band will probably see a steady flow of strong sales for a long time after its release. Guitar Hero has seen the steady flow of strong sales with Guitar Hero and Guitar Hero II as they spread via word of mouth, but now that the series has exploded, there is likely to be a rush of many sales followed by a noticeable lack of sales. Rock Band isn't a household name by any means yet, so I'm inclined to believe that its sales will follow the same steady pattern as Guitar Hero II has seen. It's not quite as unknown or under-produced as Guitar Hero, but it's also not as mainstream and mass produced as Guitar Hero III.

In two years from now, it's likely Guitar Hero III will be a vague memory, and we'll have seen two more GH expansion packs and two full GH games since its release. I can't imagine Guitar Hero III DLC being supported two years from now unless they make GHIV and GHV DLC completely cross-compatible for all the main games stretching back to GHIII (which is probably not an unreasonable idea). They are more likely in my mind to make new DLC (say, for GHIV) unavailable to the older games (like GHIII) to ensure that people continue to buy the new games. Guitar Hero III sales will probably be extremely scarce two years from now as the support dies down. Rock Band, on the other hand, is likely to just begin seeing a slowing of sales in two years time. DLC will probably still be supported for RB with new DLC each month (compared to the initial new DLC each week we'll have to start out with). Rock Band II or whatever they want to call it (Rock Band II sounds a lot more forced than something like Guitar Hero II; I hope they'll have a different name for a full-fledged sequel) may not even be out in two years from now (though I suspect it will be released by the end of 2009).

Personally, I'm counting on the "normal" status of RB to begin with to ensure that I can just walk into a retail store the day of its release and buy it without having to pre-order. But I can see demand growing very high and supplies getting low throughout the next couple months. RedOctane had a lot of trouble keeping up with the demand of Guitar Hero early on. I don't think Rock Band will be dissimilar to that.

[espher]

I wouldn't say that. I think that the two will differ greatly and whatever RB does differently or lacks may be a stumbling block for some and will ***** and moan about it. The adaptivity isn't there.

Absolutely.

I mean, where's Rock Band's battle mode?

Or boss battles?

Or co-op only songs?

These are the things that Harmonix's Guitar Band lacks, and they need to get them in their game NOW!

[PanocideX]

He misread the article... the Wii version is indeed 89.99 (http://www.gamestop.com/product.asp?product_id=230184)

Actually I didn't. I checked it three or four times. They must have made a mistake and then corrected it later. But it is correct now.

[Huwonk]

"But it's on IGN.com's message board posts where Guitar Hero III really reigns. The third installment in the axe-shredding game has been the subject of 25,000 posts this year, compared to Rock Band's 4,000."

Haha... 24,000 of the 25,000 are "WHAT WOULD YOU LIKE TO SEE IN GUITAR HERO 3?" type of posts. Hardly a gauge of what mainstream gamers will like.

However, ""I don't expect that Rock Band will be able to keep up with Guitar Hero III with regards to sales. Guitar Hero III has a significant edge across three crucial categories: pricing, brand recognition, and being first to market," said GamerMetrics analyst Nick Williams" is correct. GH3 will outsell Rock Band at least for now... The tables might turn by next spring.

[sporkBrigade]

"But it's on IGN.com's message board posts where Guitar Hero III really reigns. The third installment in the axe-shredding game has been the subject of 25,000 posts this year, compared to Rock Band's 4,000."

Haha... 24,000 of the 25,000 are "WHAT WOULD YOU LIKE TO SEE IN GUITAR HERO 3?" type of posts. Hardly a gauge of what mainstream gamers will like.


And 3,000 of the 4,000 Rock Band posts are "WHAT WOULD YOU LIKE TO SEE IN ROCK BAND?"

The content of the posts are not the point. The point is, more people are visiting the GH3 forums and posting stupid sh** then visiting the RB forums and posting stupid sh**. And that number really does say a lot about public perception.

[drno830]

Absolutely.

I mean, where's Rock Band's battle mode?

Or boss battles?

Or co-op only songs?

These are the things that Harmonix's Guitar Band lacks, and they need to get them in their game NOW!

I can understand you liking the boss battles, and battle mode, but how can you be disappointed that there aren't co-op only songs? I think that there are certain songs that are locked out unless you but two guitars. It just seems like not having access to part of the game.

[BathTub]

I'm pretty sure they were being sarcastic about Harmonix and Guitar Band.....

[toelessfoot]

Guitar Hero 3 will outsell RockBand 3:1 for sure, at least at first. No doubt RockBand is the better game though.

[Bakkster]

I can understand you liking the boss battles, and battle mode, but how can you be disappointed that there aren't co-op only songs? I think that there are certain songs that are locked out unless you but two guitars. It just seems like not having access to part of the game.

Thank you, that was the joke.

[miketoast]

I dunno, I'm buying both but I think in the end it'll be Rock Band winning the battle, specially if the planned DLC comes to fruition and continues in 2008. The promised and not delivered DLC for GH2 has gotta scare some people into thinking they're pretty much getting what's on the disc and that's pretty much it.

Personally, I think the co-op battles on GH3 are **** to the max and from what I read alot of peeps think the same. I mean c'mon, popping another dudes strings or inverting his note chart, stuuupppiiiddd....

[drno830]

Thank you, that was the joke.

Picking up on internet sarcasm has always been one of the traits that I have been lacking. I wouldn't have been surprised if he liked the co-op songs, with the number of GH fanboys there are out there.

[remotehomelife]

GH3 wins based on a simple fact in video games, sequels to previous hits always do better than the previous game. Look at Halo, each one has out sold the previous installment even though most still consider the first Halo to be the best. Same goes for GTA. GHII was the biggest game of it's kind and developed a huge fan base that has been counting the days until a new game arrives. The only time a game fails to outpace it previous counter part is if either A. the landscape of comeptition has changed or B. The devolpers make a terrible game and have shown no signs of change. There has been no change since the last GHII which is the best GH game so far. It will sellout quicker than ever and will have a good size lead before Rock Band comes out. The big challenge for GH will be when GHIV and Rock Band II are released. If RB has become the new staple of music games, GH will see a drop in sales and RB will see a big increase for making a great game.