2011(and beyond!) MLB thread.

[HairyMan]

But how is Beckett's ankle going to work out? Will it heal properly allowing him to push off from it, or will it always be a bit iffy and cause him to change his throwing style? The Boston medical staff has not really been all that great in past years, and if Beckett is more hurt that he/they are letting on, how will that impact Boston? Right now, Boston really has to be concerned about this injury more than anything else.

[DerLindwurm]

Hey, the Dodgers may actually achieve the moral victory of finishing above .500 despite everything this season.

[Mega-Tallica]

You can thank Matt Kemp for that.

[DerLindwurm]

And Clayton Kershaw.

Would be interesting if the NL Cy Young and MVP both went to players on a team that came nowhere near the playoffs. Not likely, no, but...

[Cubecubed]

I really think Verlander is a much better pitcher then either the NY or Boston ace. Plus the Tigers offense has proven that the pitchers don't need to hold the opponents to 1 or 2 runs to win. Also, Keep in mind, they will be playing at Comerica,which is not a hitter's ballpark, nothing like the little league stadium they have in NYC. Comerica is ginourmous.

[ultimatespidey81]

verlander is not much better. marginally better perhaps but its not like he's bob gibson to their steve trachsel.

as far as the detroit offense, they have had a killer stretch. but detroit fans shouldn't get all carried away because of it just like sawks fans didn't say the sky was falling when they started out as badly as they did. even with this recent stretch of beating on the ****ty sox and the overachieving injuns, they have still scored about 100 runs less than the yanks and sawks. and while you may say that its because of the stadium differences, the yanks and sawks both have decent team speed to take advantage of the gaps to play well in comerica.

[HairyMan]

Yankees actually lead the league in stolen bases, I believe. They have incorporated team speed and some small ball tactics into their offense after relying solely on the HR earlier in the year and suffering when they couldn't jack one out. While Yankee Stadium does allow for more HR's, one also needs to remember that it's not just there for the Yankees. Every opponent they play has the same advantage with regards to HRs. At home, NY has 115 HR's in 73 games for an average of 1.58 HRs per game for the Yankees. They've given up 76 HRs at home so that means they allow 1.04 HRs per game. Away, they have 85 HRs in 69 games for an average of 1.23 HRs per game for the Yankees. They've allowed 51 HRs while on the road, so on the road they average giving up 0.74 HRs per game. So with the difference between HR's hit home/away (average of 0.35 more per game hit at home) and HR's allowed home/away (0.30 more, on average, given up at home), you can see that the advantage of having a homerun friendly ballpark really isn't statistically significant since the opponent is getting that same advantage. The only way it becomes an advantage is the fact that the Yankees get to bat last while at home, but their record this year in games where they trail in the 9th at home, or go to extra-innings does not indicate that they do well in those situations. (4-9 in extra innings this year, and they've lost the last 5 or 6 games that have gone into extra innings.) Being second only to Baltimore with regards to GIDP as hitters (133 for Baltimore vs. 127 for NY) also helps kill off their rallies.

Home ballpark does come into play only for those ballparks where things are so completely different than the others that it can change the outcome of a game. A team that is predominantly a flyball team will have a greater ability to score runs in Fenway Park as opposed to Comerica because the close, tall left field wall at Fenway will turn many routine fly outs into doubles or singles due to them bouncing off the wall. Now one can argue that the expansive center field and right center field at Fenway will take away just as many hits/homeruns in other ballparks, but more often than not a right handed hitting player will be pulling the ball as opposed to hitting it straight to center or the opposite way.

To be honest, I really don't think that homefield advantage exists to any extent in baseball aside from the home team getting the very last at-bat which can be huge in games close and late. In addition, for ballparks with quirky features (Green Monster in Fenway park), the homefield advantage comes with the players being used to the ballpark and it's oddities. Baseball is a great sport because there are so many ways to look at the statistics, interpret the data, and debate to no end with ALL sides having great points. (Unless someone is trying to debate that Adam Dunn is MVP this year. Then they pretty much have nothing to back them up. lol.)

One can argue that Verlander's great numbers come from the fact that he is able to play teams like the Royals and the White Sox a great number of times each year and those teams aren't really patient, make contact type of teams. He also gets to pitch more of his games in Comerica where there is a great deal of outfield space and by being a strikeout/flyball type pitcher, this helps him out. Meanwhile, the "ace" pitchers for Boston/NY have to deal with a tough AL East where the lineups are incredibly difficult to work through (at least for Boston and NY's lineups), or have some insane HR hitting guys (Toronto), or have pitchers that can shut you down readily (Tampa Bay). Baltimore's really the only major joke of a team in the AL East.

Strength of Schedule is a pretty big thing to consider when looking at a team's performance. Detroit's strength of schedule is 22nd out of 30 major league teams with their opponents averaging a winning percentage of 0.496. In the AL, only the White Sox have an easier schedule with a % of 0.494. (Likely due to them playing the Cubs multiple times). NY has a strength of schedule of 0.503 which is 10th amongst MLB teams, and 7th amongst AL teams. (Since the AL East is so strong, teams like Baltimore, Toronto, and Tampa get a boost in SoS since they have to face both Boston and NY, while Boston and NY only have to face their rival and not themselves).

So it is a valid argument to state that Verlander does get an advantage as he gets to face generally weaker lineups in a weaker division record wise. Still, he is an insanely good pitcher who has changed from a thrower like he was in his early years, to a pitcher who uses his ability and his smartness to get hitters out. However, Detroit has to be INCREDIBLY careful to not over-rely on Verlander, or just flat out make their decisions based on an assumption that he will automatically win. Overconfidence can be a huge downfall for a team. In 1998, when the Yankees went on a tear and had an incredible year, their level of confidence nearly killed them as a spunky team from Cleveland gave them a touch challenge in the ALCS. After the series got way too close for comfort, NY finally came back and gave the level of play that we had all seen all year. In 2001, the Seattle Mariners dominated everyone. It seemed as if nobody could beat them, and it appeared as if they were beginning to think the same thing. In the ALCS that year, NY went and eliminated them and the Seattle Team just didn't seem like the same team that they were throughout the whole regular season. In the 2004 ALCS, the Yankees took a 3-0 lead on Boston and I knew that they were going to blow it after Game 4. The team seemed like they were preparing for the World Series that year and had already considered the ALCS won. That's an INCREDIBLY dangerous thing and cost NY the pennant that year.

So with Detroit, if they want to succeed in the playoffs this year, they have to realize that while Verlander gives them a great chance to win the games he pitches, just because he's pitching doesn't mean they automatically win that game. They need to prepare for the circumstances where he does lose the game, and also hope that the success of their bullpen in the regular season can hold up once the intense pressure of the post-season kicks in. (So many pitchers have done so well in the regular season, but just broke down under the intense pressure of post-season play. I can't recall if any of Detroit's major components in their bullpen have seen much/any post-season play).

God I love baseball.

[SheSaidSheSaid]

Yankees actually lead the league in stolen bases, I believe.

Second to Kansas City. 137-133. In last are the Tigers, with only 46.

[HairyMan]

Arrgh this is rough. Tampa has a runner at third with nobody out in the bottom of the 11th in a tie game. I want Boston to lose, but don't want Tampa to win. Lose-Lose situation as a Yankees fan. (Yanks are down 1-0 in Anaheim, and with how they are hitting, this game is already over).

[SheSaidSheSaid]

Now you know how I feel when the Yankees and the Rangers play each other.