2011(and beyond!) MLB thread.

[killer_roach]

That's so asinine. Who was more valuable, Barry Bonds the year he put up 137 RBI, or Miguel Cabrera this year when he put up 139?

(if you're not catching it at first, Bonds' 137 RBI was the year he hit 73 homers)

The difference wasn't two. It was FIFTY-SIX.

That's not trivial. That's a landslide.

[SheSaidSheSaid]

It's still dependent on other members of the team. If those #1 and #2 hitters didn't get on base as much, Cabrera's RBI's would have been in the toilet. Dreadful metric for evaluating hitters.

[killer_roach]

It's still dependent on other members of the team. If those #1 and #2 hitters didn't get on base as much, Cabrera's RBI's would have been in the toilet. Dreadful metric for evaluating hitters.

And stolen bases are...?

Even with Trout's vaunted speed (which should give him an edge in hitting doubles and triples, despite the fact that Trout hit two-thirds as many doubles as Cabrera), his slugging percentage was 42 points lower with four points lower batting average. Those numbers don't depend on anyone else.

Honestly, I don't see how a speedster could have only 35 combined doubles and triples over 139 games if he's a hitter on the level of an MVP candidate (comparison case, 2007 Curtis Granderson).

[SheSaidSheSaid]

And stolen bases are...?

Were we talking about stolen bases?

Even with Trout's vaunted speed (which should give him an edge in hitting doubles and triples, despite the fact that Trout hit two-thirds as many doubles as Cabrera), his slugging percentage was 42 points lower with four points lower batting average. Those numbers don't depend on anyone else.

SLG isn't bad. BA is okay if used in the correct context.

[killer_roach]

Stolen bases were one of the main drivers of Trout's WAR this year. If you're going to use WAR to illustrate value, you need to highlight the components of it where a player is exceptional. In Trout's case, it happens to be his SB numbers first, and secondly being a top-five defensive CF (although the various sabermetric stats on defense differ, he's at least in the top third in the majors no matter what you use, and in the top two or three at the best).

That's where the WAR comparisons break down - most people don't value stolen bases very highly, and defensive ability is highly subjective (for instance, Cabrera had an above-average fielding percentage and range factor this year at 3B, yet a negative dWAR - Trout, while universally considered a very solid defensive CF, people debate whether he's good, great, or outstanding).

Not arguing that Trout didn't have a great season this year - he did - but he lacked the sort of statistical superlatives that normally accompany MVP candidates.

I will say, though, that if he can improve on his numbers over the next few years (I think he'll regress a bit in 2013, but he clearly has upside for joining Canseco and Bonds in the 40/40 club, and I couldn't rule out a .340/.425/.620 line from him in the future), he's young enough and has enough tools that he could be an MVP candidate for years to come.

(Exit statement: Cabrera's OPS actually declined measurably this year - although that may be a function of the fact that few teams will walk him to face Prince Fielder.)

[sillystou]

OMFG. Melky Cabrera coming to the Blue Jays?!?! How the **** is AA doing all of this?!?!

[bigmf]

OMFG. Melky Cabrera coming to the Blue Jays?!?! How the **** is AA doing all of this?!?!

This week has been almost unbelievable. However, at this point nothing would surprise me. They could announce Halladay's return tomorrow and I would just nod and take another sip of my coffee.

[sillystou]

**** him I say... Same goes to Farrell

[SheSaidSheSaid]

There's also no one universally accepted formula for WAR.

[bigmf]

FJF.

Halladay's return would be awesome though.

I wonder if Farrell still thinks Boston is his dream job now. I hope when the Jays get aaround to hiring a new manager, the new guy says it's his dream job.