I'm pretty sure the No Covers rule exists solely to prevent garage bands from just performing their favourite songs and uploading them to circumvent licensing the song properly. I'm sure if Weird Al himself produced the tracks, HMX would have no problem letting him release it.
The real question is whether Weird Al has sufficient control over his works to put them in Rock Band. If he's expressed desire to be in the games and is waiting to be approached, then I would assume that he does have that control or at least believes he can make it happen.

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