I don't get it.

[bonethug0108]

Oh, I didn't realize new games means you have to break your old ones. That's too bad. Guess I'll get started...


Harmonix said over a million unique players play it every month, and that it's not the same million each time. They also said it's a 'side-game'. You see DLC you like, you buy it and play it, bring it to a party, whatever. It's not something you sit down and commit all your gaming time to. That doesn't mean funds aren't flowing from those people.

I get that and it's very true(and likely the only reason a nearly 2 year old game is still being played), but as time passes less people will pop it in for a quickie. If you don't think that happens you are being overly optimistic.

And just because a million people play it from time to time does not mean that all, a majority, or even half of those people buy some or even any dlc.

Like I said, hmx stated back in the hey day that players averaged 2 dlc songs. Not a week. Not a month. Not a year. That's 2 songs period.

People playing a 2 year old game from time to time does not make hmx money. People need to buy dlc. Less and less people are doing that.

Blitz is definitely an attempt to fix that.

[GNFfhqwhgads]

Like I said, hmx stated back in the hey day that players averaged 2 dlc songs. Not a week. Not a month. Not a year. That's 2 songs period.

And you think that's lower, now that the audience has been refined down to the hardcore crowd who buys more DLC? Let's not be dumb. 5 million people averaging 2 songs each is better than 50,000 averaging 150 songs each.

[bonethug0108]

And you think that's lower, now that the audience has been refined down to the hardcore crowd who buys more DLC? Let's not be dumb. 5 million people averaging 2 songs each is better than 50,000 averaging 150 songs each.

If you think the average is around 150 I don't know what to say. Just because someone is a "hardcore" fan doesn't mean they buy a ton of dlc.

Yes I do believe the average is larger, but I'd be surprised if the average of the 1-2 million people still playing is above 20 at best. Even with crazy people like me owning every single song.

And remember that most of that is money hmx got long ago. Even with someone like me who buys everything, I gave hmx a lot less money this year than last year because of the decreased output because people have been buying less.

Hmx needs more people buying more, not the same dwindling "hardcore" base buying less due to lost interest and decreased output.

Edit:
And an excellent gauge of the dwindling player base is the free songs. Look how long it took still alive to shoot to the top. Then the next 3 free songs took longer. And the 2 most recent still have not reached the top.

And I highly doubt the songs themselves factor in much when they are free. I mean Miranda Cosgrove got more downloads than Metallica.

[GNFfhqwhgads]

Yet every DLC song they've pulled a profit on already is STILL available for sale. A majority of the library already has been paid for and now is exclusively pulling in money Harmonix can keep. I mean, ****, for such an audience ream that came from RB2 -> RB3, look at the placement of Rock Band Free Pack 01. Or Linkin Park 01. Or TTFaF. Or Piano Man.

I mean, Sweet Home Alabama (Live) has over 36,000 scores on Xbox alone. So that's roughly $70,000 in gross for ONE song that may have cost let's say $6,000 to license(would have been higher if it was the studio version?). Take away that half that Microsoft keeps, and we've got $29,000 going to Harmonix, which they use a fraction of to recoup the time spent mixing/charting, and it's unlikely that there's any kickback royalties to the Skynyrd owners.

So Harmonix made $28,000 on that song with just Xbox sales, let's say. Does it MATTER if the audience is smaller with numbers like that? Not really. Hitting more of a smaller market is far better than less of a larger one, and it shows.

[bonethug0108]

That's a great post and exactly why I said I would NOT call a Blitz failure a coffin nail, but at some point(and many of those example are from 2010/early 2011) that 36,000 for a really well known song will become 13,000, and then 5,000, and then you are barely covering licensing + charting costs.

Let's not forget about labor costs in this. I think you may be underestimating with only $1,000 going to that. It's not just charting. There's a good bit of testing too. They said it takes what, one week to chart and one to test(I really forgot at the moment).

So that's vocals, guitar, bass, drums, piano, and pro upgrade(the last 2 not for every song, so let's take 1/2 for those), plus testing. If each makes $15 an hour(which I'm sure is on the very low side) and takes a week to do their part, that's 40 x $15 x 6(ish) = $3,600. If they make $25(on the high side) an hour that's $6,000.

So if songs are now doing 15,000 average, licensing costs $5,000 average, and charting costs $4,500 average, with a half take we are looking at $30,000 - $9,500 - $15,000 = $5,500. That's fine for now, but you are barely clearing licensing for the next song. If it dips lower you have to question how far in advance you should keep doing this.

And that's exactly why I believe we are only getting 3 songs a week. They are obviously clearing less and taking a smaller risk by licensing less songs. This is why we were specifically told if we want to see more songs, then people will have to buy more dlc.

Of course all these numbers are imaginary, but I think it provides a framework for how a dwindling base will eventually lead to no more dlc. This could be one year off or three. But it's coming.

Blitz is a great chance to change that. That's my only point.

[GNFfhqwhgads]

So that's vocals, guitar, bass, drums, piano, and pro upgrade(the last 2 not for every song, so let's take 1/2 for those), plus testing. If each makes $15 an hour(which I'm sure is on the very low side) and takes a week to do their part, that's 40 x $15 x 6(ish) = $3,600. If they make $25(on the high side) an hour that's $6,000.

It takes about a week or two to FULLY CHART a song. Why does it take someone literally all their on-the-clock time for a week to do five-button guitar that they've been doing for seven years?

And that's exactly why I believe we are only getting 3 songs a week. They are obviously clearing less and taking a smaller risk by licensing less songs. This is why we were specifically told if we want to see more songs, then people will have to buy more dlc.

Obviously. Have you never once seen me mention the paradox of choice? The less songs, the more likely you are to make decisions and spring on maybes, along with buy more of the overall content. Instead of Harmonix putting out 12 songs worth nearly $30,000 in licensing in one week, they can put out a quarter of that and see strong sales still.



Also, Satellite has been out for five days and sold 3,000 copies across all three consoles. So it's most likely already paid the licensing part and is now chipping away at manhours. Oh no. How disappointing.

Harmonix said more people should buy DLC if they want to see MORE DLC. They have never said more people need to buy DLC if they want to CONTINUE SEEING DLC.

[bonethug0108]

No, but the drop off of output is directly related to declining sales. Why would a company pass up 6 songs that make $10,000 each over 3 songs that make $15,000 each. That's a $15,000 opportunity loss.

It's because the margin is closing. You don't want to put too much out if you are afraid that the income will soon barely cover cost.

And I'm afraid I was even being lenient on labor costs. Yes hmx has dc and other stuff(secrets), but they do have employees outside of charters/testers that have to get their salary from some type of income. So from the community team, to the legal department, to the web team, to people working on other projects, etc. all of them are in part (and I'd say a large part) paid from dlc profits.

So now we may be looking at even less time with sales in a slow decline.

[GNFfhqwhgads]

No, but the drop off of output is directly related to declining sales.

I know. I never said the sales weren't going down. I said they're performing at a better level than your 'just enough at best' expectations.

You also said Blitz is a potential DLC bump in Harmonix's mind, as if they've ever released something hoping it would lower DLC sales. Very silly words from your mouth lately.

[bonethug0108]

I didn't say that right now they are at just enough. I'm saying when they reach that just enough level that the train will be stopping shortly thereafter.

And I'm pointing out the Blitz thing to the op and people that think like he was that Blitz is the wrong direction. I know you know. Silly.

[LuigiHann]

Here's the only thing that matters:
This is a downloadable arcade game. It will have a demo when it comes out. You can play the demo to decide whether or not you want to buy it.